Do Cubs Fans Owe Jed Hoyer An Apology, At Least For 2021?

By: Jacob Zanolla

With Javier Baez returning to Wrigley on Tuesday night, and Anthony Rizzo’s return just a few weeks away, I wanted to take a look back at the 2021 trade deadline and consider if our (Cubs fans as a whole) criticisms at the time turned out to be deserved or not.

Anthony Rizzo, the unofficial captain of the Chicago Cubs, was the first of the trio to be shipped off that July. At the time, Rizzo had a .248 average and .783 OPS. He had already hit 14 home runs, with 40 runs batted in and 36 walks. In return, the Cubs received Alexander Vizcaíno, who has since retired from baseball, and now-top prospect Kevin Alcantara.

This was probably the most hurtful of all three trades, mainly because it’s Anthony Rizzo. Over his 1,308 games in a Cubs uniform, Rizzo accumulated 36.8 bWAR, the most of any Cub from the last decade. From making the famous tarp catch, to catching the final out of the World Series, there is no doubt that Rizzo will receive a statue outside of Wrigley Field when he retires.

Since Vizcaíno retired, Alcantara is the focus of this trade. In my recent prospect rankings, I had him as the fifth best name in the Cubs’ farm system. Alcantara was promoted to Triple-A Iowa a few weeks ago and has continued a really successful season. His K rate of 24.9% isn’t ideal, but the .333 wOBA and .761 OPS are above average in his respective leagues. Alcantara has spent most of his time in center field, although a trade away from the Cubs does seem likely during the coming offseason. If he does indeed get moved, the return should be quite strong. He was included in trade talks for Logan O’Hoppe and if those talks are continued after the season ends, Alcantara once again being mentioned would make sense.

Rizzo has been decent since leaving Chicago, with a 105 OPS+ in New York. After getting traded, he re-signed with the Yankees twice and is now under contract through the 2024 season. The Yankees have a club option worth $17 Million for 2025, but the odds of that being picked up are slim. Injuries have once again hurt his career, and a strong fall-off in 2023 and 2024 will most likely send him back into free agency.

It hurt at the time and it still hurts now. However, trading Rizzo was the smart choice, and it also led to the acquisition of Michael Busch (sort of?), so it works out!

“Reported” offer by the Cubs that Rizzo rejected: 4yrs/$60M; 5yrs/$70M

Deals received from Yankees: 2yrs/$32M; 2yr/$40M (4 years, $72M)

Prospects Received from Yankees: Alexander Vizcaino (retired); Kevin Alcantara (#5 prospect with CHC)

Kris Bryant was the Rookie of the Year in 2015, and won the Most Valuable Player award in 2016, cementing him as a Cubs legend. The World Series championship helped too of course. Bryant was in the middle of a strong season in 2021, with a 861 OPS during his time with the Cubs that season. Jed Hoyer shipped him off for two prospects, both of whom are currently in Triple-A. Outfielder Alexander Canario was the Giants’ 9th best prospect at the time, with pitcher Caleb Killian just sneaking in at number 30. Killian did really well in the minors before getting injured, but the hope is that he can return and maybe give it one last shot with the major league club. Whether it’s injuries or lack of command, things haven’t clicked for the young right hander.

Canario has had several stints in Chicago, most of which ended with him sitting on the bench doing nothing before getting sent back down to Iowa. So in a sense, he just gets a nice bonus payroll-wise every few months. As I mentioned with Alcantara, there isn’t a good fit for Canario in this organization, so a trade with Canario as a smaller piece would not be surprising. This was the worst return that Hoyer got out of the three trades, but it truly wasn’t that bad. Sure it hasn’t worked out so far, but the idea was solid.

After getting traded to San Francisco, Bryant continued to produce, with a .788 and seven home runs. That offseason, he shocked the baseball world by signing a seven year deal with the Colorado Rockies worth $182,000,000. In a piece written by Sam Blum of the Athletic back in February of 2024, Bryant talks about feeling rushed after the lockout ended and feeling like he needed to hurry and join a team. “It’s like, ‘Oh shoot, I need to get there,’” Bryant said. “There were other teams interested, but I didn’t want to wait around. … It was a completely different situation for a lot of free agents at the time. I guess I didn’t do as much research into the prospects as I could” (Blum).

The Rockies did nothing else that offseason, making it look like they signed Bryant purely to bring some fans to the ballpark and make him the face of their franchise, with no intentions of winning any time soon. Bryant has been injured ever since, appearing in only 157 games with the Rockies over almost three seasons. In his time with Colorado, Bryant has a .713 OPS (90 OPS+) and 17 home runs, a fall-off that no one saw coming.

“Reported” offer by the Cubs that Bryant rejected: Multi-Year deal worth $200M+

Deal received from Rockies: 7yrs/$182M

Prospects Received from Giants: Caleb Killian (AAA) and Alexander Canario (AAA)

Javier Baez is the reason I wrote this article, as I noticed fans were understandably quite sad about his return to Wrigley Field with the Tigers. After the series opener where he went 0/4 with four strikeouts (his first four strikeout game of the season), Baez posted a thank you to Chicago for the warm welcome home, and I have to wonder if he will play the rest of the series. With Detroit valuing young shortstop Trey Sweeney very highly, and Baez struggling once again, his future with the Tigers is up in the air.

Baez was known as El Mago: he was the magician, and a reason for everyone to watch baseball. He headlined the cover of MLB The Show 2020 and was one of the faces of the sport. Whether it was his majestic home runs, or defensive plays that were thought impossible, you bought your ticket praying to see a Baez masterclass.

Below is a video of Javier Baez’s home run on July 23rd, 2021. I remember this home run well because I was there, and also because it was the last home run that involved all three former members of the Cubs (Bryant and Rizzo were both on base, and therefore scored on this absolute tank from Baez). Those really were the good old days.

Baez was traded to the Mets with Trevor Williams, and in return the Cubs got a top prospect, although injured, in Pete Crow-Armstrong. Crow-Armstrong was the fifth best prospect in the Mets’ system at the time, but was coming off of surgery on his right arm, so his value was lowered due to that risk. While Baez hadn’t been incredible in 2021, a 105 OPS+ and 22 home runs had him above league average. With the Mets he did well, hitting .299 with a .886 OPS. Baez then became a free agent, and chose to sign with the Detroit Tigers for 6 years, worth $140 Million.

On the Tigers, Baez has been nothing short of abysmal, this season being his worst. As of Wednesday afternoon, Baez’s average is .182, with a OPS+ of 43. He has six home runs, but that’s about all that he has done. The defense is still somewhat there, although he did lead the league in errors back in 2022. The four strikeout night that I mentioned earlier seemed poetic, even if it was sad for Cubs fans to watch.

Trevor Williams had a 3.06 ERA in 32.1 innings with the Mets after being traded, and then stayed with them for the 2022 season as well.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a name we are all familiar with now, as he is patrolling center field for the Cubs pretty much every night as of his last promotion in May. The offense hasn’t been there in a way we expected, but as of late he’s really started to hit well, which gives me a lot of hope for his future. His defense is as good as advertised, along with the speed. If he continues to produce at this level, while ideally improving the offense, the Cubs will have easily fleeced the Mets in this deal.

“Reported” offer by the Cubs that Baez rejected: Multi-Year deal worth $180M+

Deal received from Tigers: 6yrs/$140M

Prospect Received from Mets: Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs, MLB)

All three of these Cubs were special, and will forever be a part of this team’s history. If you win a World Series for the Chicago Cubs, especially ending a century-long drought, you won’t have to pay for anything in that city again. Fans were very critical of Jed Hoyer for trading these players away instead of extending them. What most fans don’t realize is that Hoyer had tried to extend them, and all three players decided they wanted to risk it for more money.

All three players, with Rizzo maybe being the exception, lost their bet. The Cubs may have spent their money poorly in other ways, but they tried to extend the core. They tried to keep the boys together, stopped due to all three players, understandably, wanting more money. With Bryant hurt for what seems like the hundredth time in Colorado, Baez sitting on the bench watching the Wrigley faithful cheer for new franchise shortstop Dansby Swanson, and Anthony Rizzo’s long-awaited return just weeks away, Cubs fans should not only realize that Hoyer made the right choices, but also that we had it really good for a while. The choices were tough, but ended up being smart from a business perspective.