Ivy League Cubs

By: Jake Russell

After days of speculation, the Cubs finally officially acquired (now former) Astros reliever Ryan Pressly, in a one-for-one swap involving some cash (5.5 million per good friend of the blog Jacob Zanolla) and 20-year-old Cubs pitching prospect Juan Bello. Pressly, in the final year of his contract, had to waive his no-trade clause from Houston, and it appears he will receive a full no-trade clause with the Cubs as well, per Jon Heyman.

Pressly lost the closer role after the Astros signed Josh Hader before the 2024 season. Pressly still had a successful 2024 season, although the season did coincide with a slight drop-off in stuff and strikeout numbers. In 56 innings, he had a 3.49 ERA (88 ERA-, so essentially 12% better than average), a 23.8 K%, and a 7.4 BB%. The 23.8 K% marks a near 12% drop-off from the 2022 season, which has coincided with a couple of MPH drop-off on his fastball, although interestingly his curveball, slider, and changeup velocity have remained largely unchanged.

Despite the drop-off in velocity, he was still effective as I mentioned earlier. Certainly, I think you could argue it’s a bit of a worrying trend. I won’t call it a red flag, because this is still a reliever who has had tons of success, even with a velocity drop off as recently as last season–but a 12% K% drop off over two seasons still is not ideal.

The fastball also lost ~1.5 inches of vertical movement from 2023-2024. All that being said, it still profiles as a cut-ride fastball. He averages less than 0.5” of horizontal movement on the pitch, which can help make it an effective contact-managing pitch. Plus, all three of his changeup, curveball, and slider had a whiff% of over 30% in 2024. Those are still three plus pitches in my opinion, and he also had an overall stuff+ of 124 in 2024.

Really what I’m getting at is that, although Pressly probably isn’t as good as he was even two years ago, he is still a good pitcher with a good floor, especially given his still strong command traits. He has not had a BB% over 8% in his Astros career, nor has he had a chase% below the 80th percentile.

Pressly should be a good and reliable option for the back end of Craig Counsell’s bullpen next season. It seems as if the Cubs guaranteed him the closer role, which may have been needed for him to waive his no-trade clause. All this move does is strengthen the entire Cubs bullpen, and it’s honestly shaping up pretty nicely. Though it’s a bit congested, the Cubs have plenty of options. It also remains to be seen who the Cubs will DFA for Pressly. They currently have 40 players on the 40-man, 23 being pitchers. I would be surprised if it was a recently acquired player (like Festa or Zastryzny) that is removed, although it is certainly a possibility.

Of course, I want to touch on Juan Bello as well. Bello was just 20 years old in 2024 and started 22 games in Low-A Myrtle Beach for the Chicago Cubs farm system. He had success over 89.2 innings, pitching to a 3.21 ERA, a 25.1 K%, and a 7.7 BB%. According to Fangraphs, Bello currently sits in the high-80’s/low-90’s and tops out at around 92. It seems Bello also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup, although unfortunately, I don’t have specific pitch specs on anything. It’s certainly plausible he could add a couple of ticks of velocity over the next few years, and it looks like he already has solid feel for his pitches. There’s upside in there, especially given the low mileage on his arm and how young he is. There is tons of room to grow.

Overall, I’m excited about the addition of an arm like Pressly. There is certainly a ton of experience and a good enough floor. I also am tired of seeing the lazy comparisons to Hector Neris just because they are both aging Astros relievers. Pressly’s command, in my opinion, is way better and provides a way better floor. He also throws harder than Neris did–plus he has three plus secondaries. I think it’s worth giving up Bello for a year of Pressly, although I did like Bello. As I said earlier, there’s already some upside in Bello’s profile, and I wish him nothing but good luck in Houston–but this is a clear win-now move from Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office.

Picture Credit: Tim Warner, Getty Images