By: Jake Russell
It had been rumored for forever, but the New York Yankees finally acquired Cody Bellinger from the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, as first reported by Jeff Passan. The deal came after what was rumored to be a back-and-forth between the Cubs and Yankees regarding how much money the Yankees would take on. The teams ended up settling on the Cubs paying just 5 million of Bellinger’s contract, which undoubtedly neutered the return for the Cubs.
Those were my initial thoughts on the trade. At its core, this trade is a salary dump–there is no doubt about that. The Cubs wanted to free the salary that Bellinger was occupying, and by and large, they did. Bellinger was kind of on the outside looking in on the depth chart, too. After the Kyle Tucker trade, Bellinger would have been behind all three of Happ, PCA, and Tucker in the outfield, as well as Suzuki (who would presumably be the DH) and Michael Busch, who outperformed Bellinger as a rookie last season.
Of course, injuries and slumps do occur, but still–27.5 million dollars is an expensive price for a depth piece, even if it is a solid one. In New York, Bellinger will get the opportunity to play nearly every day in Centerfield, which will help his value in free agency, especially if he plays it at a good level, and continues to be a solid bat.
Why should the Cubs care, though, if their depth piece is making 27.5 million dollars? Especially when it’s one that can play all three outfield spots plus first base, and likely has a path to 400+ plate appearances considering injuries, slumps, and off days? For one, I think it’s an issue that Bellinger (or Michael Busch, or any of the other four players he would be backing up) cannot play third base.
And while I’ve seen people suggest the Cubs could move Michael Busch to third base, I think it is a particularly bad idea. Jed Hoyer himself has said that the organization views Busch as a Gold Glove caliber First Baseman, and Busch received particularly poor scouting grades at third base as a prospect. Fangraphs gave Busch a fielding grade of just 30/80 (where 50 is average), while MLB Pipeline gave him a 40/80. Busch was seen as an offense first prospect coming into the MLB draft, and it largely stayed that way throughout the minors. I think that it’s important to remember that had Busch been able to play second or third, the Dodgers probably would have kept him and let him play on their roster in 2024.
It also doesn’t help that in limited samples Busch was very poor defensively at second and third. In 2023, he accrued -4 Outs Above Average at third base in 99 innings. Perhaps its confirmation bias, but Busch being thought of so poorly as a defensive prospect and then following it up with very poor performance isn’t exactly a good sign there.
Of course, I still very much like Busch. He has a good bat, and he’s able to play good defense at first base. All this to say–the Cubs need room for a third baseman, and none of those six players (Bellinger, Busch, Happ, Suzuki, Tucker, PCA) could fulfill that for the Cubs.
I want to circle back to the salary dump portion of this breakdown now. The Cubs freed 22.5 million dollars for 2025, and they’re now roughly 50 million dollars under the luxury tax threshold. Freeing this tax space only matters if the Cubs do something with it, but they might have something big in store. Perhaps Jed Hoyer wants to make a run at Corbin Burnes now. A trade for Jesús Luzardo certainly becomes easier financially now, as does adding several more depth pieces (like Yoan Moncada, or Harrison Bader, or a plethora of relief pitchers).
There certainly were arguments to keep Bellinger, but I think we’ll have to wait to grade this move until we see what Jed Hoyer and co. do with the money they freed up here. If they don’t add any pieces, it’ll admittedly be a bit of a head scratcher. However, I have confidence that they will add more pieces.
I’ll also be intrigued to see what the Cubs’ role for Cody Poteet looks like, but I’ll have an article that focuses on him more tomorrow. For today, I wanted to focus on the impact the Bellinger trade has on the position player/financial side of the Cubs roster.
I’m still holding out hope we’ll get Yoan Moncada, or at least another third baseman. I outlined four options for the Cubs several days ago, which you can read here. I also can’t help but wonder if the Cubs view Kevin Alcantara as ready for the Opening Day Roster. He made his debut late last season, is an incredibly athletic freak of nature who plays good defense, and could complement PCA, who hit much better versus righties than lefties.
Of course, it always helps to have depth. This is why I am still a bit confused over the Cubs decision to non-tender Mike Tauchman, who could have provided this kind of floor, but he still may not have played very much for the Cubs in 2025.
To wrap all of this up, I suppose my point is that trading Bellinger opens up a plethora of possibilities for the Cubs in 2025. It can allow guys like Kevin Alcantara, Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, James Triantos, and even Moises Ballesteros the possibility of debuting and getting ample playing time. It also opens up a lot of possibilities trade and free agency wise, from Corbin Burnes, to Jesús Luzardo, to even lower tier guys like Yoan Moncada or Harrison Bader.
Financial flexibility is always a great thing to have, but especially when you are in an off-season as crucial as this one for Jed Hoyer and the Cubs. Again, we’ll have to wait and see what they do with the money this trade frees up, but it’s something I am looking forward to.
Picture Credit: Matt Dirksen, Getty Images
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