How Cubs can Fill Third Base

By: Jake Russell

Isaac Paredes was set to be the Cubs long-term third baseman when they acquired him at the 2024 trade deadline for Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge, and Ty Johnson. However, plans change, as the Cubs dealt him to the Astros in exchange for Kyle Tucker (a deal I am a huge fan of, I might add). This does leave uncertainty at the third base position for 2025 for the Cubs, though. There’s no real obvious answer as to who can fill that void–the Cubs predictably let go of Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal this offseason, and with Paredes gone now, they’ll be looking for a new third baseman (as reported Friday by Bob Nightengale).

Of course, the Cubs have several in-house options to fill this gap. The most obvious is 2023 first round pick Matt Shaw, who made the transition to third last year and has done nothing but light up pitching throughout the minors. Across AA and AAA last year, Shaw possessed an 11.9% BB%, 18.2% K%, while hitting .284/.379/.488–good for an .867 OPS and 146 wRC+. The latter number was a top 3% mark amongst all minor league baseball hitters last year, and Shaw didn’t rely on crazy BABIP numbers to achieve that production either.

Of course, there are questions about how Shaw will translate defensively. Fangraphs gives him just a 35 grade defensively, and it always seemed as if defense would be the question with Shaw. Granted, defensive statistics across the minors are very limited in access–if at all accessible to the public, although Baseball Prospectus DRP (Deserved Runs Prevented) credits him with +1.1 runs prevented in 2024. I’m not sure how completely accurate this is for the Minor League Levels, but it does at least provide me with some hope that he can be a quality major league defender.

I have also seen Michael Busch’s name thrown around as a potential third base option for 2024. If I’m being honest, I think that would be a mistake. In 2023, Michael Busch had -4 OAA at the position, and was very lowly graded as a prospect defensively. He had success translating to first base, and I think it would be a mistake to move him off that position. He has a rather weak arm, and though I think he is decently rangy, he is probably best suited for first base right now.

There are, of course, several options that the Cubs could look into externally. My personal favorite option would be former White Sox 3B, Yoan Moncada. Moncada should only command a one year contract (maybe a two year deal, with the second being an option of some sort) for very cheap. Moncada has had an up-and-down career, filled with injury issues, but I think he still has some upside left in the tank. In 2024, he only played 11 games before suffering an adductor strain, but was off to a solid start (again, the caveat here being it was only 11 games).

If we look at Moncada’s most recent season, which was 2023, he played just 92 games, and had a 98 wRC+ with -1 OAA. While these numbers aren’t great, it’s worth noting that he was on a ~1.8 fWAR pace in 2023. Cubs third baseman combined for -0.1 fWAR in 2024, making it an incredibly easy position to upgrade at, even if you aren’t projecting top of the line production from the position.

As I mentioned earlier, Moncada still does possess some upside. He’s always displayed fantastic raw power with good plate discipline. Although he never quite reached his 2019 levels of success again, Moncada still has a barrel% over 8% and BB% over 10% since 2020, while consistently reaching max EV’s in the 70th percentile or higher. If Moncada can put together a fully healthy season, he can maybe realize some of that lost potential. There is also a sure path to 400+ PA’s for both him and Matt Shaw if both make the Opening Day roster, considering the DH, off-days, and platoon splits. Moncada has been much better against righties throughout his career, while Shaw has been a bit better against lefties throughout the minors. This could be a solid way to help ease Shaw into everyday at-bats, and, of course, injuries will happen. Craig Counsell also was hesitant to play Michael Busch against lefties in 2024, and I would expect that trend to continue.

Ultimately, I think Moncada is kind of a perfect fit for this team–looking for a bounceback, has the power tools the Cubs are looking for, and there is a path now for every day (or nearly every day) at bats.

Another potentially low-cost option on the free agent market is Josh Rojas, who was non-tendered by the Mariners despite a relatively productive season. Rojas is an extreme splits player, and has been better versus righties than lefties for a grand majority of his career. In 2024 that was especially apparent–he had a 104 wRC+ versus righties, and just a 15 wRC+ versus lefties. Rojas has very little power, but fantastic plate discipline and typically solid whiff rates.

He also brings great defense at third base with good defensive versatility. In 2024 he had 6 Outs Above Average and 7 Defensive Runs Saved at third base, and can play second base in addition to outfield spots.

Likely, Rojas would fulfill a strong-side platoon role/insurance plan to Matt Shaw if the Cubs were to pick him up. Plus, in 2024 he was worth a respectable 1.9 fWAR (largely due to his exceptional defense). I prefer Moncada to Rojas, but if the Cubs can’t/don’t land Moncada, Rojas would be a very solid pickup.

Really, the only other Free Agent option the Cubs could pick up would be Alex Bregman. Bregman is coming off another 4 WAR season, but will command a very large contract and is similar to Isaac Paredes in the sense that he relies on extreme pull-side power and likely benefits from the Crawford boxes in Houston.

While I think Bregman is better than Paredes–the batted ball numbers are much better, he has solid barrel rates and exit velocity numbers, along with amazing plate discipline–I’d still be wary of handing out a large contract to him. He is on the wrong side of 30, and his power has already begun to decline from the beginning of his career. Bregman would surely upgrade the team right now, but I think the Cubs should stray away from a long term deal with the Third Baseman. The ballpark fit isn’t very obvious–Bregman has 17 more home runs than expected home runs at Wrigley Field, per statcast, in his career, likely due to field dimensions. It’s at least something to consider, especially since Bregman’s raw power has been getting ever-so-slightly worse recently, and he is on the wrong side of 30.

The final option I’d like to cover would come from the trade market, although I find it extremely unlikely–especially considering the Phillies rumored asking price for Alec Bohm. Bohm had a breakout 2024 that saw a huge April followed by ups and downs and, ultimately, a 3.5 WAR season, two wins better than his previous career best.

It helped, to be fair, that Bohm went from quite possibly the worst defender in baseball (at least at third base) to serviceable in 2024. I’m not sure how or why that happened, but it does make me a little bit wary of him at the very least.

He has, however, typically been a solid bat. In 2023, he posted a 106 wRC+ (but -12 DRS and -5 OAA between first and third base). Additionally, the Phillies reportedly asked the A’s for Mason Miller for Alec Bohm, according to Ken Rosenthal–a laughable ask considering his track record and up-and-down 2024 season. The Cubs probably would not want to meet that type of asking price, and I wouldn’t blame them. If you could get Bohm on the cheaper side, it could make sense–but it doesn’t seem like that will be the case.

Of the four external options I listed, Moncada is by far my favorite. I love the idea of him potentially unlocking his old form with the Cubs while allowing Matt Shaw to mix in a significant number of reps. Maybe all he needs to do is get away from the White Sox organization, which has done a poor job of keeping a number of players healthy over the past five seasons. Some people just need a change of scenery.

I would also like to note that this is not in any way sourced–these are purely my thoughts and wants for the Cubs third base situation in 2025. Again, I seriously hope the Cubs can land Moncada and give the team an upgrade at the hot corner for 2025.

Picture Credit: Peter Aiken, Imagn Images