How Likely Is A Nico Hoerner Trade This Winter?

By: Jacob Zanolla

Nico Hoerner finished off the 2024 season rather strong, leading to questions about his future with the Cubs. On Monday, Meghan Montemurro announced that Hoerner had underwent surgery on his flexor tendon earlier in October, something no one was expected to be a possibility. He missed a few games due to his hamstring, as well as getting hit on the hand, but appearing in 151 games is no easy feat. The injury most likely was hurting throughout the season, but was not severe enough to warrant missing any playing time.

Hoerner’s name has come up in trade discussions lately, especially at the trade deadline in July. The Cubs were reportedly discussing a deal with the Cleveland Guardians that would have sent Nico Hoerner to Cleveland for a top prospect. The Guardian’s number two prospect Chase DeLauter was one name mentioned in a possible return to Chicago, although I’m not sure how serious talks were when he was mentioned.

He had a down year to his standards, mainly when looking at his offensive production. Most of his offensive statistics worsened when being compared to 2023, but the league had a down year in general, so it’s not super noticeable when looking at his wRC+.

His offense was pretty weak at the plate until the last month or so, although his defense was spectacular once again. He wasn’t nominated for the Gold Glove this year, with his Outs Above Average dropping by 4.

The Cubs have multiple names that can replace Hoerner if a trade does happen, including Matt Shaw and James Triantos. Moving the skilled infielder gives Jed Hoyer the opportunity to bolster the offense, with Horner’s bat being pretty replaceable. Whether that’s acquiring a new catcher, or trading for a starting pitcher, Hoerner carries value that should make many teams interested in a potential trade.

Michael Busch came up at a second basemen in the Dodgers farm system, giving the Cubs another option as a future second baseman. Busch played a few games at second base when Hoerner was injured this season, but he’s probably not a real candidate for the job should the Cubs trade away Nico.

In the end, Hoyer has to decide if he can get enough value for Hoerner that it constitutes trading away a fan-favorite and overall solid player. Having Matt Shaw knocking on the door in Triple-A Iowa is huge, and makes me lean towards trading Hoerner away this winter. While the injury definitely makes things more interesting and questionable, the likelihood of a trade only decreased by a small amount. He can heal by the beginning of Spring Training, and our farm system is strong enough to constitute getting valuable resources back in return.

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