Ivy League Cubs

By: Ethan Diamond

Trying to predict who will pitch for your team in the future is nearly impossible. When I made my preseason predictions on my Instagram (@chicagocubscave), I did not include Porter Hodge in my predictions, simply because I didn’t think he would get many innings as he started the year in AA. Now, he has worked his way into a high-leverage role, sharing save opportunities with Jorge López after Héctor Neris was DFA’d. Speaking of López, who would’ve thought he would be closing games for us back when the season started? In fact, none of the three guys I’ve mentioned so far were even thought to have any chance of becoming the closer this season back on March 28th, as Adbert Alzolay held that role. This all to say that Major League Baseball pitching staffs are the most volatile group in the sport. But, that doesn’t mean we can’t predict what it will look like next season. So today, that is exactly what I am going to do, predict the Cubs 2025 Opening Day pitching staff. I will only be using players currently in the organization in my final projection, as Free Agency is also nearly impossible to predict right now.

Rotation Locks: Justin Steele, Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon

This seems pretty straightforward. Steele and Imanaga are both having very good seasons, with the latter still having an outside shot at NL Rookie of the Year. Both will be under contract for next year, along with Jameson Taillon. Unless the Cubs decide to trade Jamo, he will be part of the team next season and more than likely be in the rotation.

Battling For a Rotation Spot: Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Cade Horton, Brandon Birdsell, Connor Noland

The final two rotation spots have a lot of candidates. Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian have very outside chances, though I will be featuring them later as I don’t think they will really be in this mix unless one dominates Spring Training. Brown, Wicks, and Assad have all had time in the rotation at some point this season. Assad has had the most time, posting a 6-4 record with a 3.15 ERA, though he is starting to regress after an incredible run to begin the year. Brown has not pitched since June and will likely remain out the rest of the season due to a neck injury, but he will return next season looking to grab a rotation spot. He’s a guy that could benefit from adding another pitch (perhaps a kick-changeup that has emerged this year), as he only has two pitches right now. Wicks has also spent a majority of the season on the IL, but was not bad in the games he did pitch and will likely come off the 60-Day IL sometime in September. As for the prospects, Cade Horton is an obvious candidate given his status as our top pitching prospect. If not for his injury, he likely would be pitching in the bigs right now. The guy who has taken over in Iowa in his absence has been Brandon Birdsell, who has absolutely dominated his last few outings and is knocking on the door of Wrigley as a potential September Call-Up. Also, keep an eye on darkhorse Connor Noland, as he has also pitched very well this year and could also make his way up himself in the next few weeks.

Bullpen Locks: Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, Luke Little, Yency Almonte

Given the fact that all of these guys have years of control left, they should start next season in our bullpen. Jorge López is a guy I would also explore bringing back given how well he has pitched this year. Hodge will be in the mix for closer next year, while Miller and Pearson will likely service as middle relief options. Also, don’t forget about the currently injured Luke Little and Yency Almonte, as both were working their way into high leverage innings when they got hurt. They should both be back next season.

Battling For a Bullpen Spot: Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, Jack Neely, Julian Merryweather, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian, Keegan Thompson, Michael Arias, Cam Sanders, Frankie Scalzo Jr., Kohl Franklin

Assuming one of the starters that doesn’t get a rotation spot moves to the bullpen, that would leave two spots for a lot of guys looking to get into the bullpen. Daniel Palencia probably has the best stuff of any of these guys, and would be a lock if it weren’t for his poor command, which was the downfall of Jeremiah Estrada as a Cub last season. Ethan Roberts has one of the nastiest sweepers in baseball, but his supporting pitches aren’t great and his velo is still not up to pre-Tommy John levels. Jack Neely hasn’t had a great start to his big league career, but he also has pretty good stuff and should not be immediately written off. Julian Merryweather has struggled with injuries this year and when he has pitched, he hasn’t looked very good despite his great 2023 campaign. Hayden Wesneski worked his way into a high-leverage reliever role this season, but his downfall was surrendering a lot of home runs and he has been hurt for a while now. Caleb Kilian is starting games for Iowa and has been pretty good, but his best path back to the majors now is likely in a relief role. Thompson will be looking to lock down his major league spot over the last month of the season and into Spring Training, as he has had an up and down past two years due to struggles and injuries. Michael Arias was added to the Cubs 40-Man roster last year and has the clearest path among the four prospects to get a spot as he is pitching in Iowa and needs to keep pitching well in order to get the call. Cam Sanders has pushed for a call-up over the past few years, but has never been able to finally make his way to the bigs. Perhaps he will get a shot to make it. Frankie Scalzo should be up at some point next year, whether that is right away is yet to be determined. I’m not entirely sure what the injury to Kohl Franklin is, but if he is healthy he would also have a good chance to make it up given he is Rule-5 eligible, a minor league free agent, and he likely would’ve gotten the call this year if not for injury.

Now with that all being said, here is my official prediction for our pitching staff on Opening Day 2025:

Predicted Rotation

Justin Steele

Shōta Imanaga

Ben Brown

Jameson Taillon

Jordan Wicks

Predicted Bullpen

Cade Horton

Tyson Miller

Nate Pearson

Luke Little

Yency Almonte

Daniel Palencia

Jack Neely

Porter Hodge

Overall what it came down to for deciding the rotation spots was best fit. Jordan Wicks’ stuff is better suited for a starting role than a relief role. The final rotation spot came down to Brown, Horton, and Assad. While I know Assad has been good in his first few seasons, his underlying stats are not great and they should try and get value for him in the offseason. I think they end up starting Cade Horton in the bullpen before working him into a starting pitcher role, which leaves Brown to get the final spot in my projected rotation. When it came down to the last two bullpen spots, I decided to go with Palencia and Neely purely on their stuff. With Palencia having the nastiest stuff in the organization, the Cubs need to develop his control as much as they can. Neely profiles as a guy who could challenge for a closing job, that is if he can improve on his early stint in the majors (which I am confident he will). The other guys that didn’t get spots would serve as depth options should guys get injured in the majors, unless they are out of options in which the Cubs could either try and get them through waivers or trade them. I’m sure there will be a good amount of differences from my list and the actual roster come next March. I did not consider any free agents because of how difficult that would be to predict, and I’m sure the Cubs will add somebody. Either way, the Cubs will be looking to compete next year, and they’ll need to put together a good pitching staff if they want to win the division next year.

Free Agents to Consider: Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Jorge López, Matt Moore, Walker Buehler, Carlos Estevez, Clay Holmes, Tanner Scott, Will Smith

Image Credit: Marquee Sports Network