Ivy League Cubs

By: Jake Russell

Much has been made in recent years about the decline in Starting Pitcher innings, decline in pitches thrown by starters, and the increase in bullpen usage. In 2023, 24984 innings were thrown by starting pitchers–a drastic decrease from even a decade ago, where 28676 innings were thrown by starters. It’s a decrease of roughly 0.8 innings/start over the time period.

There has been a very clear and steady decrease in IP/GS, especially as of recent. The last time Starting Pitchers have averaged more than 6 IP was 2011 (coincidentally, the year of Justin Verlander’s MVP). The addition of the DH to the NL has seen a slight uptick in overall IP/GS, but not a huge uptick.

Largely, this has coincided with an uptick in velocity. In 2007, the first season MLB tracked velocity, starting pitchers averaged 90.5 MPH on their fastballs. In 2025, it’s an astonishing 3.6 MPH harder, coming in at 94.1 (which is even up a full MPH from 2019!). MLB teams are always chasing wins, and what leads to wins are preventing runs. What leads to preventing runs are strikeouts, and what leads to strikeouts is chasing stuff (more often than not which is done by training velocity).

Of course, higher velocity puts more strain on a pitchers’ arm. Couple that with the new-age adage that a pitcher is only dealing until he’s not, and innings have gone down. Pitchers are throwing less pitches, facing the third time through the order less (and yes, it’s a very real thing!), and, plus, almost every relief pitcher is throwing upper 90’s now.

There have long been ideas thrown out about how to “fix” this, but the most recent one is perhaps the most ridiculous and, quite frankly, bad, idea. The fact that it comes from an MLB spokesperson makes it much, much worse. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported that the idea to implement a 6-inning minimum has been kicked around by MLB’s top brass.

This is probably going to be a bit of a rant, so I apologize in advance, but I do not think this is a good idea at all. First of all, MLB says they want to decrease injuries. This could be just me, but I’m not sure how forcing pitchers to throw more pitches is going to decrease injuries. There’s a reason career-ending injuries are so much more rare now–guys aren’t pushed past their limits anymore, and, of course, surgeries are much more effective. The list of players who get Tommy John multiple times is short, and it is unlikely to happen. Pushing pitchers to throw more pitches, even if they are lower intent, is not going to lessen injuries.

Now, of course, there are a few caveats that Rogers lists in his article–a pitcher could potentially be taken out after an injury, 100 pitches, or 4 earned runs allowed (why would this not just be 4 runs allowed?). Even then, this forces pitchers to throw more pitches, and I would be more than willing to bet that if this got implemented we would see an even bigger uptick in injuries. I mean, we just don’t see careers like Mark Prior, or Tim Lincecum, or, (and I’m going with a throwback here), Mark Fydrich. Bright, young stars whose careers were decimated by overuse and constant injuries. Forcing pitchers to throw more would only increase this issue.

I understand why MLB wants to bring the Starting Pitcher “back”, but forcing pitchers to throw *more* is not the way to do it. I’m not really sure what is, but players would have to change the entire way they train. That would be a tough overhaul for the entirety of organized professional baseball to go through.

Of course, MLB would still have to test this out, so there isn’t any danger of this change coming to MLB right now, but it’s also dangerous to implement this across a Minor League Baseball system that prioritizes player development over winning. Let’s look at Paul Skenes, for example, who was just drafted in 2023. His first 4 starts involved him going 4.1 innings at most in order for him to build up his stamina and arm. Shorter outings with the intent of developing players would be impossible under these new rules, and it could seriously hinder player development, especially for younger, recently drafted players.

I really hope MLB never does this, or tests it in the minor leagues (or the Atlantic League). Anyways, for fun, here’s a list of players who made the most starts that would not have adhered to these new proposed rules. There’s our friend Javier Assad!

Picture Credit: Mike Carlson, Getty Images