Ivy League Cubs

Blake Snell’s wait to sign a contract is finally over, as he reached an agreement with the San Francisco Giants on a 2 year deal worth 62 million dollars, with an opt-out after year one.

An insane turn of events this off-season for not only the reigning Cy Young winner, but a two-time Cy Young winner, getting a short opt out deal instead of the long-term deal he and his agent, Scott Boras, desired.

This adds to an already pretty underrated, in my opinion, Giants roster, and pairs the Cy Young winner with another ace in Logan Webb, and it forms one of the most formidable 1-2 punches in baseball, especially with Gerrit Cole now out to start the 2024 season.

Snell is notorious for his inability to go deep into games, but clearly something works for him, and the very analytically-inclined Giants might be a fantastic place to maximize his production. People might (or might not be) surprised to know that Snell had the lowest zone% of his career last season per Baseball Savant, at 39.9%, which was the worst mark in baseball among qualified pitchers. Clearly, it didn’t matter, and Snell might be the best example of Stuff over Command that we have in Major League Baseball today. But, that complete lack of command also might contribute to why teams are hesitant to give out a long-term contract–after all, he has a 12% walk% over the past 3 seasons with the Padres. But his K% hasn’t been under 30% since 2017.

Like I said, Snell’s stuff is pretty ridiculously good. He sits in the mid-upper 90’s with good cut-ride shape on his four-seam fastball with good extension, a hard slider that has quite a bit of lift and not much sweep, and a really good curveball–last year he had a 107 Stuff+ overall per Eno Sarris’ model, which was 8th among starting pitchers.

The Giants could definitely be a threat to take a Wild Card spot now, though it’ll be tough for anyone to compete with the Dodgers. They’ve had a pretty successful offseason though, adding Jung Hoo-Lee and Matt Chapman before this, and have several young prospects ready to take steps like Patrick Bailey and potentially Marco Luciano, as well as Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn (who is my Giants breakout pick this year). Fangraphs currently projects them at 81-81, though to be fair I am unsure if this includes the Snell signing or not. Either way, this puts them within a game of the current NLWC3 projection (and actually tied with the Cubs).

I can’t say how much I love this move from the Giants perspective, but it’s pretty tough for Snell. He, like Bellinger, and Chapman, should have realistically gotten long-term contracts based on their performance last year, but I think a multitude of factors prevented that from happening. Snell is a really good pitcher, and assuming health, I have no doubt in my mind he will be able to opt out and get a good long-term contract.

Picture Credit: Gregory Bull, Associated Press