Verlander, Giolito, and Gray Hurt; Boras Implications?

By: Jacob Zanolla

Good evening! It’s pretty gloomy and rainy out today, which fits the current mood among baseball fans very well.

First, Justin Verlander was put on the IL, where he will begin the season. Verlander is working back from a shoulder surgery. He’s 41 years old, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that he’s injured. However, he’s been pitching for so long that he clearly knows what to do. He won’t be out super long, at least I wouldn’t think, so the Astros shouldn’t be too worried. This is definitely not a case where they need to overpay for a starting pitcher (Montgomery/Snell) to save their rotation. Houston doesn’t want to rush him back, so I assume he’ll only miss a few weeks.

Next, we received an announcement on Lucas Giolito, a new free agent acquisition for the Boston Red Sox. He signed a two-year deal worth $38.5 Million earlier this offseason, which now will end up only being a one year deal due to injury. According to Jeff Passan, Giolito has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain which could make him miss all of the 2024 season. If he needs surgery to repair the damage, this would most likely keep him out all year. This is brutal news for the Red Sox, as well as Giolito who was excited to prove himself and get back to the version of him that we saw just a few years prior. There are many implications, especially after they traded Sale to the Braves. The first pitcher that comes to mind is Jordan Montgomery, who is a free agent that has been heavily connected to Boston. At first I thought this would make the chances of him landing in Boston more likely, but I’ve since changed my opinion. Now that Giolito is out, I believe this is truly a punt year for the Red Sox. The main reason they have stayed away from Montgomery is due to the high price he is asking. Therefore, it would make little to no sense for John Henry, the Red Sox owner, to pay for him now. Why pay a high price for a pitcher that you won’t even need to compete?

As we knew yesterday, Sonny Gray left the Cardinals game after injuring his hamstring. This morning Derrick Goold announced that it was indeed a “mild” hamstring sprain. They clearly want him back for Opening Day, but it doesn’t seem like that is extremely likely at this point in time. If I had to guess, he will probably start the season the IL. Like Verlander, it won’t be for too long, unless he has a setback in his recovery. Ever since the Cardinals signed Gray, Lynn, and Gibson, the worry has been their age. Their rotation is extremely weak, as in the end they signed a really good pitcher in Gray, along with overpaying two washed old starts in Lynn and Gibson. Making a roster move to replace Gray isn’t likely, which Mozeliak confirmed by saying “I definitely feel it’s not something that’s required at this point.”

I’d argue that while this news is clearly unfortunate as you can never root for injuries, the Giolito news in particular is quite interesting for the Cubs. Another contender for Montgomery is out, assuming the Red Sox truly do not go after Montgomery. At what point to the Cubs get involved? They’ve checked in on Montgomery, and would most likely be extremely interested if the price drops. As teams drop out of the race, the price is destined to drop. What would Jed need to do rotation wise to make this work? Smyly and Wicks are the main two people likely to be affected, whether that be a Wicks trade or more likely trading away Drew Smyly. Remember, injuries happen. You can never have enough talent.