2024 Positional Rankings: First Base

By: Jake Russell and Jacob Zanolla

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our joint positional rankings! This is the second of our series that will cover every position in baseball. We have each compiled our lists and then combined them to make a joint top 10–plus several honorable mentions below. We have written a small writeup for each member of the top 10 and given five honorable mention players with a small writeup for all of them. Hope everyone enjoys the list!

Freddie Freeman

Coming in at number one, to nobody’s surprise, is Freddie Freeman. You would likely have a hard time finding someone who thinks he isn’t the best first baseman in baseball, and we are no different. Freeman does pretty much everything well–he has plus power, one of the best hit tools in baseball, and great plate discipline. Freeman was top 8% in xwOBACON last year and 100th percentile in sweet-spot%. Freeman’s ability to consistently put the bat on the ball and hit the ball well makes him such a unique player in today’s game

Jake’s rank: 1

Jacob’s rank: 1

Matt Olson

Coming in at the second spot is Braves 1B, Matt Olson. Olson is coming off the best year of his career, a year in which he led the Majors with 54 home runs and finished 4th in NL MVP voting. Olson is a classic power-over-hit guy who draws a lot of walks. His power, though, is off the charts (clearly). Nobody in baseball had more barrels than Olson did last season and he trailed just Elly De La Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, and his teammate Ronald Acuña Jr in max EV last season. Olson is a fantastic hitter who continues to thrive as one of the best first basemen in the game.

Jake’s rank: 3

Jacob’s rank: 2

Bryce Harper

At number 3 is lefty slugger Bryce Harper. After signing a massive deal with the Phillies, he’s been nothing short of incredible for them, even leading the 2022 Phillies to the World Series. He only played in 126 games last year due to injury but produced a .900 OPS along with a wOBA of .384. His xWOBA of .399 was in the 97th percentile, and he also boasted a 14.7% walk rate and a barrel percentage of 15.2%. Now that Harper is a full-time first baseman, he is without a doubt one of the best at his new position.

Jake’s rank: 2

Jacob’s rank: 3

Pete Alonso

Number 4 on the first base list is the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso. Alonso is known for hitting home runs, and he kept up with that trend in 2023. He was third in home runs in baseball, blasting 46 bombs in 154 games. Alonso had an xwOBACON of .436, along with a barrel percentage of 14.7%. While he may not be elite at defense, Alonso is always a threat to go yard or drive in runs whenever he is at the plate–he drove in 118 this past season alone.

Jake’s rank: 5

Jacob’s rank: 4

Yandy Díaz

Rounding out the top 5 is Tampa Bay Rays first baseman, Yandy Díaz. For years, Yandy has gone super under the radar but finally broke out in a huge way in 2023 (though even in 2022 he was a top 10 hitter in wRC+). Among qualified hitters, he was 5th in wRC+ trailing superstars Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Ronald Acuña Jr, and the unicorn himself Shohei Ohtani. Díaz consistently runs top-of-the-league chase and walk rates, and though he struggles to lift the ball often (his 51.2% ground ball rate over the past 3 years is just in the 8th percentile), it’s not a death sentence with his plus-plus raw power. Look for Yandy to keep slipping under people’s radar as one of the best hitters in the game.

Jake’s rank: 4th

Jacob’s rank: 7th

Paul Goldschmidt

Just missing the top five is Paul Goldschmidt, who we have ranked as the sixth-best first baseman in Major League Baseball. Coming off of an MVP season in 2022, he rapidly declined in 2023. However, he still had an impressive season compared to most players’ standards. Goldschmidt had a very strong walk rate of 12.7%, along with a 50.8% hard-hit rate. His xWOBA was top 9% of the league at .367, which happened to be the same figure as his 2022 season! With 25 home runs, he batted in 80 runs and even stole 11 bases. Even if he never returns to his peak 2022 season, the Cardinals know they have a consistently above-average hitter at first base for this upcoming season.

Jake’s rank: 6

Jacob’s rank: 6

Vladimir Guerrero Jr

The MLB The Show 24 cover star slots in at number 7 on our list. Vladdy had what many may consider a down 2023 after a 166 wRC+ year in 2021, and a 133 in 2022. In 2023, he fell to a respectable 118 wRC+, but he had just 1 fWAR largely due to being worth -7.1 baserunning runs and an atrocious -13 OAA. There is reason to be optimistic though: despite the launch angle issues, Vladdy’s raw power is very good. Kind of similar to Yandy Díaz, in a way, though with likely worse discipline. Vlad Jr’s max EV was in the 98th percentile of all hitters last season, and he still had an xwOBACON over .400. Compare that to a wOBACON that was in just the 32nd percentile last season? It’s easy to see the upside in Vlad Jr’s game.

Jake’s ranking: 8

Jacob’s ranking: 5

Triston Casas

Triston Casas is ranked as the 8th best first baseman in baseball. He came in third place for the 2023 AL Rookie Of The Year award, hitting .263 with a 1.7 fWAR and 129 OPS+. His 13.9% walk rate was top 7% in the league, while his xWOBA was .370. He wasn’t great on the defensive side of the ball, finishing at -10 OAA. However, his strong hitting stats make up for it. Casas also hit 24 home runs, hitting a max exit velocity of 113.2 mph. Going into his second full season at the major league level, Casas is someone to watch in 2024, as he could easily make his way up this list next season.

Jake’s rank: 7

Jacob’s rank: 10

Christian Walker

Coming in at number 9 is Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker. Walker is one of the best defensive first-basemen in the league. In the past 2 seasons, he has 26 Defensive Runs Saved and 26 Outs Above Average. No other first baseman has more than 15 DRS or 10 OAA in that span. When you pair that with an offensive profile that had a 75th percentile barrel%, chased just 26% of the time while maintaining zone-swing rates over 70%? You have a very productive first baseman who was 5th at the position in fWAR last year.

Jake’s rank: 10

Jacob’s rank: 9

Vinnie Pasquantino

To finish the top 10 off, we have Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Pasquantino unfortunately tore his labrum last season and missed 100 games, but the upside with him is enormous. In his major league debut in 2022, Pasquantino walked more than he struck out and had a .374 xwOBA to go along with a 136 wRC+. 2023 wasn’t quite the same story, as he regressed to a 103 wRC+. Amid his zone-swing% dropping 6% and his chase% rising 6%. Pasquantino doesn’t whiff, and he still has good raw power. It’s a DH/1B profile, as the defense isn’t very good, but if he can regain some of what made him so good in 2022, the upside is easy to see and what made him so highly ranked going into 2023.

Jake’s rank: 13

Jacob’s rank: 8

Honorable Mentions/Just Missed (alphabetical order)

Ty France

Rhys Hoskins

Nathaniel Lowe

Josh Naylor

Spencer Torkelson

Each of these players received mentions from both of us. Some of them are looking for bouncebacks, like Hoskins, who signed a one-year deal with the Brewers, or France, who went to Driveline this off-season to train. Lowe and Naylor are both coming off good seasons and looking to build off of them, while Torkelson looks to build off a solid sophomore season with pretty good underlying numbers. Each of these could have been top 10 picks, but settle just outside the top 10.

Jake’s Top 15