Where will the Boras Four end up?

By: Jacob Zanolla

All offseason we have been talking about Scott Boras, and how long he is going to keep his clients on the open market. As we inch closer to Spring Training, the four main Boras clients still don’t have a home. How long could this last? Some may until the end of Spring Training, although I assume at least two of them will sign before the end of February. These free agents include Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell. Let’s discuss which teams are the best fit for these players.

Cody Bellinger:

Cody Bellinger has been connected to a handful of teams this offseason, none more than the Chicago Cubs. Cody was able to revive his career on the North Side in 2023, winning a Silver Slugger award while hitting .307 with a .881 OPS and 4.1 fWAR. This was his best season since 2019 in which he won the National League MVP Award. He can play great defense at first base and center field, providing a team with defensive versatility.

It has been rumored by many reporters that he is asking for north of $200-250 Million. This is way too much, and I’d be very surprised if he gets anywhere near there. The two main concerns are production wise. While he did get a lot of hits last season, his hard hit rate was in the 10th percentile, while his average exit velocity was 87.9 mph (22nd percentile). Therefore, the concern is him maintaining the stats that gave him the high WAR, and put him in this discussion to begin with. After injuring his shoulder in the 2020 World Series, he went on to combine for 0.8 fWAR in the next two seasons. He was statistically one of the worst players in baseball, as he posted a 47 wRC+ in 2021. Teams don’t expect Cody to replicate his extremely impressive 2023 season, but the thought that they could be opening up the vault for a 50wRC+ player has to give them some hesitancy. Will he continue to produce like he did last year, or will the poor batted ball numbers catch up to him?

Overall I think Cody Bellinger will have a good 2024 season. It won’t be insane, but it also won’t be awful. He seemed to have found a groove in Chicago, so his success in 2024 and beyond could very well depend on where he signs.

Team Fits: Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies

The Cubs have been the favorite for Cody Bellinger ever since he became a free agent at the beginning of the offseason. The Angels have quietly worked their way into the sweepstakes, landing them at #2 due to there not being any other clear fits aside from them and the Cubs. Toronto has been wanting to make a big splash, as they tried for Ohtani before getting duped by none other than Shark Tank millionaire Robert Herjavec. They have signed Kevin Kiermaier this offseason, although that doesn’t totally rule them out of the Bellinger sweepstakes. It does make them less of a fit, and most likely passed over when it is all said and done.

In his morning notebook for February 4th, Bob Nightengale had an interesting Phillies section worth noting. “Several executives think the Philadelphia Phillies could be a sleeper for one of the remaining marquee free agents in starter Jordan Montgomery or center fielder Cody Bellinger.” He ends by saying that the Phillies will only be interested in the price drops, which I feel applies for many teams. Boras is most likely just using this as leverage, hoping other teams get desperate and up their price.

Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs need of Cody Bellinger has been well mentioned throughout the winter. Players even mentioned it at Cubs Convention, while Jed Hoyer prompted the crowd to chant about Bellinger as well. He doesn’t want to overpay for Bellinger, but Cubs fans won’t be pleased if Hoyer doesn’t get a deal done by Opening Day. Jed is patient and willing to wait for the price to drop, and I expect he gets a deal of 6-7 years for $160-180 Million.

Matt Chapman

Chapman is coming off a season sort of opposite of Bellinger. He started off extremely strong, hitting .384 with a 1.152 OPS in April. However, he then started to decline and finished with a .240 AVG, .755 OPS, 110 wRC+, and 3.5 fWAR.

Once again opposite with Bellinger, his batted ball statistics were absolutely fantastic. He had a 56.4 Hard Hit Percentage (100th percentile), 17.1 Barrel % (98th Percentile), and an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph (98th percentile).

Chapman has the worry of the drastic falloff after his strong Spring, so teams have to decide if it’s worth the risk. One major positive with Chapman is that you know he will provide elite defense. He’s coming off his fourth Gold Glove season, while having won two platinum gloves in his career.

Team Fits: San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays

The Giants are the most obvious fit for Chapman. It is well known that they have money to spend, especially after missing out on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. The Cubs need a good bat at third, although Chapman is most likely a pivot for them. The Blue Jays are mainly in the conversation due to having Chapman last year. However, signing IKF, and reports that they probably won’t spend much the rest of the offseason, lead me to believe that he won’t end up back in Toronto.

Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants need to make a big move for their fanbase, as well as for the team itself. They have a need for a third baseman, and San Francisco has been connected to Chapman since the beginning of the offseason. After missing on a few big names last offseason, I believe this is the winter they get their guy.

Blake Snell

Blake Snell is certainly one of the most interesting, and in a way confusing, free agents this offseason. He’s coming off his second Cy Young season, so you would assume he will receive a massive payday. However, his extremely high walk rate and lack of stamina during games may have teams worried about signing him long term.

In 2023 Snell posted a 2.25 ERA, his career best in a season. His walk percentage was 13.3%, which was a career high. The walks, along with the fact that he averaged less than 6 innings a start, is making teams hesitant to dish out a large contract. With Boras as his agent, Snell is most likely waiting for a team to get desperate for a starting pitcher and pay the price he wants. I have to assume he will lower his price substantially, as he truly isn’t worth the high price he is demanding.

Team Fits: Giants, Angels, ?

As I mentioned before, Blake Snell’s market is extremely confusing and super hard to predict. With there not being one leading suiter, I wouldn’t be shocked if he signs with a team we aren’t even thinking of. From a team perspective, a short term deal would make sense as there isn’t as much risk involved. However, Snell most likely wants to have security for the next 5-7 years.

Team Prediction: Angels

Like I said above, I am not very confident in this prediction. However, there have been some connections between Snell and Arte Moreno’s Angels. If they decide they want to spend money, Snell would be a nice fit to add into their rotation.

Jordan Montgomery

A reigning World Champion, Montgomery is coming off a very strong 2023 campaign. After being traded from the Cardinals to Rangers mid season, Montgomery continued his extremely successful season. He had an impressive 43.2% Ground Ball Rate, limiting his opponents to 0.86 HR/9. With a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, Jordan had a 4.3 fWAR and 3.56 FIP. Once he was traded to Texas, his ERA improved by 63 points to a 2.79 ERA over 67.2 innings

He has been extremely consistent, so that is not an issue like it is for Snell. His price could have a small effect on his market, although I expect it is the teams themselves. At 31 years old, he should be able to receive a lengthy contract. It will most likely be around 5-7 years, which is often the most common long term deal for a pitcher.

Team Fits: Rangers, Giants, Phillies, Cubs?

Let me start off by saying I threw in the Cubs just due to some loose connections, and the fact that I think he is someone Jed would like if his price drops. However, I highly doubt that happens.

The Rangers are who he was with to finish off the 2023 season, and he won a World Series with them. Therefore, why wouldn’t he want to go back. The main problem is that they are trying to figure out their TV deal in order to fund Montgomery’s expensive contract. If the price ends up dropping, it wouldn’t surprise me if Philadelphia jumps in on the sweepstakes. The Giants could sign Montgomery as small mentions of the two have been made this offseason, although with my prediction of Chapman landing there, I doubt they have the budget for both.

Team Prediction: Texas Rangers

The Rangers are trying to repeat as the champions, and will eventually bring back front line southpaw Jordan Montgomery. He once again solidifies their rotation, and gives them the consistency that they need to once again contend for the title.

As we sit here in the first week of February, I start to worry how long we are going to be waiting for the Boras 4 to sign. I would expect for one or two of them to sign before March, but at least one holding out until close to the regular season wouldn’t surprise me at all. Boras is in a staring contest with MLB Front Offices, and the problem is he will do anything to make sure he wins.